An estimate is a courier's typical transit time for that route, added to the seller's dispatch window. It is not a guarantee, and it is not a promise either of them made individually.
That does not mean it means nothing — a date that has passed by a week is a real signal. It means the first day past it is not.
What to check, in order
1. Has it actually been dispatched? If the order is still Being packed, the estimate was never running. The thing to chase is the dispatch deadline — courier orders are due 24 or 48 hours after payment depending on the store. When will my order be sent?
2. What does the tracking say? Moving slowly is different from not moving. A parcel that scanned yesterday in a hub two states away is simply in transit.
3. Has it stopped? No scan for several days is the real warning sign, not the estimate itself.
4. Does it say delivered? Then it is a different problem and a more urgent one. Tracking says delivered but nothing came
Why estimates slip
- Festivals. The weeks around major festivals are the worst, in both directions: volumes spike and staff are away.
- Weather and strikes, which close routes without notice.
- Address trouble — a failed attempt restarts the clock and often does not update the estimate.
- The seller's closed days. A store shut on Sundays dispatching on Saturday night is not late on Monday.
When to ask the seller
A couple of days past the estimate, if the tracking has gone quiet. One message from the order, with the tracking number: "This was due Tuesday and the tracking hasn't moved since Friday — could you check with the courier?"
They can open a case with the courier that you cannot. That is the main reason to go through them rather than straight to a dispute.
When to raise it
A week past, with no movement, or the moment it is marked delivered and is not with you. Raise it from the order with what the tracking shows and what the seller said. Metzee decides a dispute within 48 hours of it being opened.
Do not leave it for a month. Courier records age out, and a complaint about a parcel nobody can trace is decided on much thinner evidence. How to raise a problem
What the seller is measured on
Not the courier's transit time — they are measured on dispatching inside their window and on marking it. So a late estimate with an on-time dispatch is not something they are penalised for, and they genuinely may be as much in the dark as you are.
Which is why the useful question to them is "could you chase the courier" rather than "why is this late".
More: how to find and track an order, what if my item never arrives, how do I know it has actually been posted.